Vaccine Autoimmune Project for Research and Education (VAP)

 

 

When 1 in 150 is really 1 in 67
 
By

Raymond W. Gallup & F. Edward Yazbak, MD, FAAP

 

 

On February 8, 2007 the CDC released New Data on Autism Spectrum Disorders (ASDs) from Multiple Communities in the United States.” (1)

Since then, most people and the press have been under the impression that in the United States, the “new” CDC- reported ASD prevalence rate of 1 in 150 was a recent discovery that was current for 2007 when indeed it was not at all.  The study did not document a prevalence of 1 in 150 among children born now or five years ago.  The study revealed that among U.S. children born in 1994, thirteen years ago, 1 in 150 on average had a spectral disorder.

According to the official press release:   

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported findings today from the first and largest summary of prevalence data from multiple U.S. communities participating in an autism spectrum disorder (ASD) surveillance project.  The results showed an average of 6.7 children out of 1,000 had an ASD in the six communities assessed in 2000, and an average of 6.6 children out of 1,000 having an ASD in the 14 communities included in the 2002 study.  All children in the studies were eight years old because previous research has shown that most children with an ASD have been identified by this age for services.”

The U.S. Department of Education has recently released the official figures for autism/ASD by age and state for school year 2006-2007, in accordance with the Individuals with Disabilities Education Act’s requirement that comprehensive annual reports be published and presented to the United States Congress.

Children born in 1994 and who according to the 2002 CDC study had an ASD prevalence of  around 1 in 150, probably started first grade in the fall of 2000.

In Table I, we compared by state, the number of 6 year-old children with Autism/ASD in U.S. schools in 2000-2001 with those similarly diagnosed children of the same age who attended school in 2006-2007.  The percent increase in that particular group since the CDC’s acclaimed 1 in 150 prevalence figures is listed by state in the right column.

All states, except Alaska and Oklahoma had increased first grade enrollment of children with spectral disorders.  Thirty five (35) states more than doubled their load and consequently their financial needs and in New Mexico, the number of ASD students quadrupled between 2000 and 2006.  The District of Columbia did not report.

STATE

2000-2001

2006-2007

% increase

Alabama

47

146

211

Alaska

30

28

-6

Arizona

151

454

201

Arkansas

95

106

12

California

1,539

3,465

125

Colorado

55

156

184

Connecticut

146

343

135

Delaware

22

56

155

District of Columbia

11

x

0

Florida

481

1,080

125

Georgia

273

551

102

Hawaii

42

76

81

Idaho

28

62

121

Illinois

499

945

89

Indiana

254

576

127

Iowa

33

56

70

Kansas

84

141

68

Kentucky

96

217

126

Louisiana

102

173

70

Maine

57

145

154

Maryland

232

414

78

Massachusetts

29

604

108

Michigan

415

735

77

Minnesota

240

695

190

Mississippi

31

64

106

Missouri

198

410

107

Montana

24

35

46

Nebraska

32

87

172

Nevada

59

214

263

New Hampshire

28

70

150

New Jersey

470

1,002

113

New Mexico

14

63

350

New York

664

1,306

97

North Carolina

273

450

65

North Dakota

12

20

67

Ohio

306

798

161

Oklahoma

67

43

-36

Oregon

213

452

112

Pennsylvania

427

1,065

149

Puerto Rico

68

167

146

Rhode Island

34

89

162

South Carolina

88

216

145

South Dakota

23

47

104

Tennessee

83

251

202

Texas

738

1,629

121

Utah

79

167

111

Vermont

12

21

75

Virginia

198

484

144

Washington

122

323

165

West Virginia

49

90

84

Wisconsin

201

461

129

Wyoming

9

27

200

Total

9,483

21,275

124

 
Table I
Children aged 6 with autism served by IDEA
Source: U.S. Department of Education

 
In February 2007,
Marshalyn Yeargin-Allsopp, MD, MPH chief of the CDC's autism program was quoted as saying (1):

  “It is extremely difficult to accurately estimate the number of children who have an ASD”
  “Medical records often do not provide such information, and identification is often made by schools or education specialists”
  “We don't know the causes of ASDs, but we do know that if we can identify autism and other developmental problems in children early, they can begin receiving appropriate interventions sooner”

Parents of children with autism would probably agree with Dr. Yeargin-Allsopp’s first two points and most of them would gladly share their thoughts and ideas about the causes of autism, if she cared to listen.

In the same press release (1) CDC Director Gerberding was quoted as saying: Our estimates are becoming better and more consistent, though we can't yet tell if there is a true increase in ASDs or if the changes are the result of our better studies.